Traditionally, Israel is seen in a Middle Eastern frame by partners in Europe and the United States, even if the country’s leading international ties are Western.  Israel remains a key actor and stakeholder in the Middle Eastern context, of course, but several developments suggest that the Mediterranean dimension is set to acquire greater prominence in the coming years. This shift will also have important implications for relations with Brussels and Washington.

 

First, despite Russian risks, the Mediterranean has arguably become the leading strategic focal point for Europe as it grapples with the challenges of migration and terrorism.  The chaotic conditions prevailing in the Levant and North Africa are not just a series of immediate crises. They are very likely to prove durable, and will shape the European security environment for years to come. Containing and hedging against the risks flowing from the collapse of states and protracted conflict in Syria and Libya, and potential instability in Egypt and elsewhere will be a shared interest for Europe and Israel. 

 

Second, the EU and NATO are both in the process of recasting their strategies looking south. This is likely to be a long term project for both institutions, and will inevitably involve rethinking – and strengthening – Mediterranean partnerships. There are not very many capable and willing partners in the southern Mediterranean.  Israel and Morocco, in different ways, are leading members of a very short list of partners in a position to do more. In my view, this is not about creating new security arrangements for the Mediterranean per se, but rather “borrowing” aspects of the existing hard and soft security architecture – projecting stability southward from Europe. Improved Turkish-Israeli ties, would improve the outlook in energy security and other terms, as would a settlement of the Cyprus dispute. Both goals are now within reach.

 

Finally, these shifts will have implications for the United States and US-Israeli relations. For a variety of reasons, the next decade may be characterized by less American attention to the Gulf, and more attention to the Mediterranean security, where transatlantic interests are increasingly engaged. Washington may come to see its engagement in the Middle East and North Africa in large measure through the lens of its European security interests. This could mean a subtle recasting of security ties with Israel in more Mediterranean terms, but also as part of a wider US-EU approach to security in Europe’s ”near abroad.”