The quantity of
shocking news from the Middle East these days has become overwhelming for
anyone but the truly thick-skinned: Jihadis roll through Iraq, Syria gases its
people, Hamas kidnaps Israeli teens — to name a few. It’s therefore
understandable why interest in the Iranian nuclear crisis has waned. Indeed,
there are probably many who now asking themselves: “Is that still going on?”
Yes, it is
still “going on.”
Last year, the
international community celebrated the June 14 election of Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani with much fanfare.
So, too, an
interim agreement (which included the U.S. as a signatory) reached with Iran in
November 2013 aimed at freezing parts of its nuclear program and rolling back
its capability to manufacture a nuclear weapon. The expectation was for a final
agreement by July 20. Whether there is a signing or an extension, I sense the
Iranians increasingly feel they have the upper hand.
This sense is
more real than intuitive, having been strengthened by a recent op-ed by Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif published in the Washington Post, which resonates
with the defiance and self-confidence that Rouhani himself demonstrated more
than a decade ago.
In his piece,
Zarif makes clear to Western readers that as far as Tehran is concerned the
game is over. To paraphrase the gist of his argument: Iran is now a latent
military nuclear power for all intents and purposes, it has no intention of
curtailing its technological advancement, and there’s really nothing the
international community can do about that.
Chilling,
actually, but that should have been expected: Past experience in the nuclear
crisis has demonstrated that Iran gains confidence from a protracted process of
engagement. Of course, there’s more spin than reality in the Iranian foreign
minister’s presentation. For while Tehran has certainly made significant
progress in its nuclear program, at this writing it still is not a latent
nuclear power.
And what about
the sanctions? Well, they’re still in place, of course, taking their toll while
Iran continues to seek ways to circumvent them until it can achieve total
relief — sanctions removal.
According to
recent reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency construction work
continues unchecked at the Parchin military installation, where Iran seeks to
conceal hydrodynamic experiments carried out to simulate the behavior of a
nuclear explosion. This reflects the heart of the crisis: Iran’s nuclear
program was not designed for civilian purposes but rather for acquiring nuclear
weapons, and the program’s military dimensions represent the core issue.
So try as
people may to simply move on, resolving the nuclear issue cannot be achieved
without fully addressing the military dimensions, including a thorough
investigation by the international agency, and drawing the required
conclusions. Indeed, it is unclear how an agreement can be reached concerning
the future of Iran’s nuclear program without first solving the continuing
mystery of its military nuclear activities. If that past is simply brushed
aside, any hope of preventing its future activities will be sheer fantasy.
And by the way:
A year into Rouhani’s term, Tehran has never been more involved in subversion,
terrorism, backing tyrants and oppressing its own people. Clearing the way for
Iran’s military nuclear program will do nothing to change its behavior in this
context; on the contrary, it will empower its appetite for hegemony.
Yehuda
Yaakov is Israel’s consul general to New England and author of an Israel
National Defense College analysis of Iranian President Rouhani’s nuclear
negotiating strategy.