Behind the Headlines: Geneva Agreement
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P5+1 and Iran: Iran's nuclear program – Key implications
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11/25/2013
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Under the Geneva agreement Iran will retain its vast
enrichment capabilities. For the first time since the beginning of
negotiations in 2003 the international community recognizes Iran's
enrichment program and agrees that it will not be rolled back.
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Geneva talks between the P5+1 and Iran
Copyright: Reuters
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Geneva talks between the P5+1 and Iran (Photo: Reuters)
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Unprecedented international recognition of Iran's enrichment program –
Under
the Geneva agreement Iran will retain its vast enrichment capabilities
during both the "first step," in which the parties undertake specific
respective measures, and the "final step" aimed at achieving a
comprehensive settlement of the nuclear issue. This essentially means
that for the first time since the beginning of negotiations in 2003 the
international community recognizes Iran's enrichment program and agrees
that it will not be rolled back – contrary to a longstanding policy of
full suspension enshrined in several UN Security Council resolutions.
International acceptance of the heavy water reactor in Arak –
The
elements of the comprehensive solution mentioned in the Geneva
agreement lack any commitment to the dismantling of the Arak heavy water
reactor. The agreement only addresses the need for resolution of
concerns regarding the reactor, thus implying that Iran will not be
required to forfeit the facility which is uniquely suitable for the
production of military grade plutonium.
Uninhibited R&D of advanced centrifuges –
The
current agreement allows Iran to continue R&D of Advanced
Centrifuges. This means Iran will be able to further develop and
strengthen its enrichment capacity under the guise of this agreement,
and will be in a better position technologically when it decides it is
time to further expand enrichment. Therefore, the agreement actually
enables Iran to get closer to breakout capability.
Current stock of uranium enriched to a level of under 5% will remain intact –
Iran
is allowed to preserve its current stock of about 7 tons of uranium
enriched to a level of under 5%. Although the agreement requires that
during the "first step" Iran will convert any additional LEU produced at
Natanz and Fordow to oxide, this conversion is conditional upon the
readiness of the relevant conversion line in Iran. Given Iran's well
established record of dragging its feet to buy time it will not come as a
surprise if Iran continues to accumulate material long after the
beginning of the implementation of the "first step" and beyond.
Iran will be able to easily reverse the measures taken under the agreement and charge ahead once it is politically convenient –
Iran
is not required to roll back or dismantle anything. Its nuclear
infrastructure will remain intact, enabling it to resume full operations
upon decision.
The military dimensions of Iran's program are put in the back seat –
The
Geneva agreement does not contain any clear requirement from Iran to
provide answers, access and information in relation to the military
dimensions of its nuclear program. The very heart of the nuclear crisis
lies with those issues which imply that Iran has engaged in nuclear
weapons development. Ironically, they are completely absent from an
agreement that envisions restoring confidence in the peaceful nature of
Iran's nuclear program as one of its major goals.
The agreement undermines the sanctions regime and provides Iran with crucial relief in economic pressure –
The
international concessions in the area of sanctions undermine the
sanctions regime and curb momentum for additional pressure on Iran. It
is crucial to remember that pressure is what brought Iran to the
negotiations table in the first place, and therefore reducing sanctions
without any real concessions on the part of Iran is extremely
counter-productive: Iran is now less likely to agree to any significant
restrictions on its nuclear program.
The agreement signals that it is now legitimate to do business with Iran –
Private
sector actors may interpret the agreement as a signal that Iran has
embarked on a path that will bring it back from international isolation.
This may result in renewed efforts to resume or develop business in
Iran.
The "interim" agreement might become permanent –
In
the absence of a sense of urgency under the façade of an agreement, the
interim measure might become permanent and define the parameters of
Iran's nuclear program for years to come. Given the observations made
above, this means that Iran will practically be escorted to a nuclear
threshold position by the international community.
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